GM(1,1)模型的中国农业经济发展趋势分析

Trend analysis of agricultural economic development based on GM(1,1)model

选取2002-2012年全国农业总产值数据,依据灰色系统理论对全国农业总产值进行灰色关联分析。根据数据建立了全国农业总产值的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测结果表明,运用灰色系统模型的方法对全国农业经济总产值的预测与实际偏差很小,模型具有较强的预测能力。

With the data from 2002 to 2012, the total product of agriculture and its sub-industries of China were analyzed using the method of Grey Correlated Analysis. Thereafter, the results of the analysis was used to construct the GM（1,1） forecasting model, small gap was found between the real data and the predicted data, which proved the effectiveness of the GM（1,1） model in the trend analysis of agricultural economic.