中国服务贸易与货物贸易因果关系分析——基于误差修正模型的中美对比分析

The Causality Between the Trade in Goods and the Trade in Services of China——Based on the Contrast of China Vversus America According to VECM

运用时间序列分析和因果关系分析,对比分析中美两国各自货物贸易和服务贸易之间的延迟引导关系。协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验结果明确了中国实现服务贸易与货物贸易可持续发展的内生性难题:中国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期货物出口的增长,与美国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期服务出口的增长这一内在动力差别较大。

This paper employs the time serial analysis and causality correlationtest to compare the relationship between the trade in goods and the trade in services of both China and American.The cointegration analysis and Granger Causality correlationtest clarify the endogenous cause of sustainable development of trade in goods and the trade in services in China.In China the expansion of services export promotes the export of goods,which differs a lot from the phenomenon that the expansion of services export promotes the export of services in America.