基于CGE模型的能源政策效果模拟分析

A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Energy Policy based on CGE Model

本文在绿色GDP社会核算矩阵的基础上构建了能源CGE模型,并模拟能源税收和能源效率的变化效果,结果表明:能源税是节能减排的有效途径,可优化能源消费结构和产业结构,而能源效率的提升尽管可以大幅降低单位GDP的能耗和污染物排放量,但不利于能源消耗总量和污染物排放总量的控制,不利于产业结构的优化。

This dissertation constructs the energy CGE model based on green GDP social accounting matrix , and simu-lates the change result of energy tax and energy efficiency .The results show energy tax is an effective way of energy sav-ing and emission reduction , which can optimize energy consumption structure and industrial structure; energy efficiency improvement can greatly reduce the energy consumption and pollutant emissions per unit of GDP , but it has a negative impact on the control of energy consumption and pollutant emissions , leading to a negative impact on the optimization of industrial structure .