基于事件响应模型监测煤矿区地表沉陷

Surface Subsidence Monitoring of Coal Mining Area Based on Incident Response Model

煤矿开采沉陷监测预报对矿山安全生产具有十分重要的意义。运用灰色理论中GM(1,1)模型,在进一步提高预测精度的基础上提出事件响应模型,并进行煤矿开采沉陷区地表下沉值的预测分析,通过与GM(1,1)模型预测值比较,表明事件响应模型具有较好的沉陷预测效果。经煤矿开采区试验表明,在预测煤矿开采沉陷中,采用事件响应模型预测精度更高。

The monitoring and prediction of mining subsidence in a coal mine is of great significance for safe production of the mine. This paper put forward the incident response model by using GM （ 1. 1 ） model in grey system theory and further improving the prediction precision, and carried out the prediction analysis of the surface subsidence values in mining subsidence area of the mine. Through the comparison with the prediction values by GM（1. 1） model, it indicated that the incident response model has better subsidence prediction effect. The test in the mining district of the mine proved that the incident response model has much higher prediction precision for the mining subsidence.