行业贸易开放与行业产出波动的关系——基于中国制造业行业数据的经验分析

Relationship between Industrial Trade Openness and Output Fluctuation: Evidence Analysis Based on Data of China's Manufacturing Sectors

利用1999—2010年中国制造业行业数据,采用固定效应模型探讨了中国制造业行业的贸易开放度与产出波动的关系。实证结果表明:贸易开放对行业产出波动具有抑制作用。稳健性检验结果显示,上述结果不受关键指标选取和样本极端值的影响,且在控制了内生性问题后依然成立。最后指出:平抑产出波动是贸易开放的重要利得,我国制造业制定发展战略时仍需积极贯彻扩大开放的思路,同时倡导多样性的发展道路,其中产品多样性较市场多样性更为重要。

Using the data of China＇s manufacturing sectors during 1999-2010,this paper explores the relationship between sector＇s trade open- ness and output volatility. The empirical result indicates that trade openness could alleviate output volatility. The alleviation result shows that the above empirical result is not affected by the selection of key indicators and the extreme value oi＂ sample,and is still tenable after controlling endogenous problem. It points out as follows： stabilizing output fluctuation is another important trade gain~ China＇s manufacturing sectors still need to follow out the thinking of expanding opening-up actively and the development road when making the development strategy,and the di- versity of products is more important than the diversity of markets.