投资规模、消费水平与经济增长——基于新疆时间序列数据的实证分析

The Scale of Investment,Consumption and Economy Growth——An empirical analysis based on the time series data of Xinjiang

实证分析结果表明,新疆经济增长与投资规模间长期均衡关系为开口向下的抛物线,与消费水平间长期均衡关系为开口向上的抛物线。新疆投资规模驱动的经济增长最高产出水平尚未出现,并且投资规模达到4.646 66万亿元时投资对经济增长的驱动效应达到最大值;新疆消费水平导致的经济增长最低产出水平出现在1979年至1980年间,并且消费水平为31.580 51亿元时,消费水平对新疆经济增长的驱动效应最低,对GDP的贡献仅占相应年份全部份额的1/5至1/4。新疆投资规模处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间,消费水平也处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间;但是新疆投资规模和消费水平的进一步提升都存在一定的约束。

The results of empirical analysis show that： the relationship between Xinjiang＇s economy growth and its investment in a long-term equi- librium is a parabola with downward opening, and the relationship between Xinjiang＇s economy growth and its consumption in the long-run equilibrium is a parabola with upward opening. The highest level of output of Xinjiang＇s economy growth driven by its investment has not appeared, and the maximum driven-effect of Xinjiang＇s economy growth will reach when the scale of investment reached 4. 64666 trillion Yuan. The lowest level of output of Xinjiang＇s economy growth driven by its consumption appeared between 1979 and 1980, and the minimum driven-ffect of Xinjiangs economy growth had reached when the consumption reached 31. 58051 billion Yuan, and its contribution to GDP only accounted for 1/5 to 1/4 to corresponding year. The investment scale of Xinjiang is still in the interval with the positive promoting effect on economy growth, and its consumption is in the interval with the positive promoting effect on economy growth, too. However, they are certain constraints on Xinjiang investment scale and its consumption level to enhance more.