卫星钟差超短期预报模型分析

ANALYSIS OF MODEL IN ULTRA SHORT TERM PREDICTING SATELLITE CLOCK ERROR

采用线性模型、二次多项式模型、灰色模型和基于历元间差的二次多项式模型对不同卫星的钟差进行预报分析。结果表明,在超短期钟差预报中,四种方法预报精度相当,且均能满足实时精度单点定位的需要。在小样本的超短期预报中,钟差预报的精度与卫星的相关性很小,主要取决于钟差在不同时段内的小尺度变化以及所预报时间的长短。

In the wide-area real time precise point positioning, the ultra short term prediction of satellite clock error is needed for real time solving. The effects of the different satellite type clock error prediction were analized, including linear model, quadratic polynomial model, grey model and quadratic polynomial model based on epoch difference. The results of analysis show that prediction accuracy by the four methods satisfy the needs of precise point positioning in the ultra short term prediction of satellite clock error. In ultra short term prediction with small specimen, prediction accuracy of clock error is irrelevant to satellite. It mainly depends on the small scale change of clock error in different period and the length of prediction time.