中国“货币消失”的实证分析

The Empirical Study on China's "Missing Money Puzzle"

应用协整分析方法对中国"货币消失"现象进行实证分析,得出的主要判断是:当广义货币供应量的增长率和股票流通市值的增长率高于国内生产总值的增长率时,广义货币供应量和股票流通市值的增加是推动物价水平上涨的两个重要因素;而当银行中的存款余额高于国内生产总值的增长率时,会抵消广义货币供应量和股票流通市值的推动作用。中国"货币消失"现象与中国经济主体预防性货币需求较高有密切关系,体现了中国经济运行中存在的关键问题。

The paper makes an empirical study on China＇ s ＂missing money puzzle＂ by co-integration approach. The results show when the growth rates of broad money supply and stock market value are above the GDP growth rate, broad money and stock market value are two main drivers of price hike; however, when the growth rate of deposit in the financial institutions is above GDP growth rate, the driving force of broad money supply and stock market value will be offset. China＇ s ＂missing money puzzle＂ is highly linked to economic agents＇ strong preference for prudent money demand, and reflects the critical institution issues in the Chinese economy.