资本分类配置国家角色变化过程中内外储蓄的调整——对中国高储蓄率与高外汇储备率的一个解释

Adjustment of Internal and External Saving in the Countries' Role Transition of Classified Collocation of Capital: An Explanation to High Saving rate and Reserve Rate of China

2000年以来,中国的总储蓄率、总储备率出现了显著的、快速的双增长。本文通过总储蓄率、总储备率二者在不同国家群体条件下的考察,运用比较静态的方法,揭示了总储蓄率、总储备率的正向线性关系和双向因果关系。结合部分资本分类配置国家在角色转变过程中储蓄率的异常升高、储备率相应地升高的现象,推断出内外储蓄一致调整的规律。从模型表示的趋势来看,在资本分类配置国家这个群体里,从1980年以来中国一直是"现实资本投资"倾向前列的国家,并非是"货币资本投资"类型国家。中国较高的外汇储备率,是与很高的储蓄率相适应的。

Gross saving rate and gross reserve rate mounted remarkably and rapidly in China since 2000. This paper discloses that gross saving rate and gross reserve rate are linear and bidirectional cause-effect relation via being tested in different countries groups by comparative static method. It deduces that consistent tuning is the law what governs the change of role in classified collocation of capital countries combining the gross saving rate and gross reserve rate particularly increased at the same time. From the point of view of model- ing tendency, China has been being a realism-capital-investment leaning country but not a currency-capital- investment leaning country since 1980. Chinese high foreign exchange reserve rate is adaptive with the high gross saving rate.