最低工资水平对城镇正规部门劳动力就业的效应分析

An Analysis on the Minimum Wage's Employment Effect over Formal-sector Workers in China

摘要：基中国于2004～2011年的实证分析面板数据，可以发现，整体来看，最低工资水平的提升有助于促进劳动力就业；分地区来看，东部地区最低工资与劳动力就业成正相关，而中部地区最低工资标准的提升对劳动力就业具有负效应；分部门来看，城镇国有单位的劳动力就业与最低工资水平的滞后一期显著正相关，而私营企业的劳动力就业与当期最低工资水平成正相关。城镇化发展对提升西部地区劳动力就业的效应最显著，东部地区较高的投资水平对其劳动力就业具有显著的挤出效应，老龄化对东部地区的劳动力就业具有负效应。因此，政府需要充分考虑相关因素对劳动力就业的冲击，进一步理清最低工资的劳动力就业效应，通过就业政策和劳动力市场制度的完善，实现劳动力更加充分的就业。

Based on the panel data model, this paper studies the employment effect of the minimum wage on the formal-sector workers. The empirical results show that the employment effect in China is positive, while it is positive in east and negative in the central region. From the sector perspective, the lagged minimum wage has a positive and significant impact on the state-owned institutions, and the current minimum wage is positive related to the employment in private enterprise. As for other variables, the development of urbanization promotes the employ- ment in the western region, while investment and aging in east have a crowing-out impact on employment. The re- suits imply that we should take into account the related variables＇ impact on employment, clarifying the employ- ment effect of minimum wage, as well as achieving full employment through the improvement of employment policy and labor market.