基于SEIRS传播模型的网络舆情衍生效应研究

Research on Derivative Effects of Network Public Opinions Based on SEIRS Propagation Model

舆情话题在实际网络传播中引发衍生话题已是常态现象,为揭示网络舆情传播的真实情况,本文在传统的传染病传播模型基础上引入话题衍生率,构建了SEIRS网络舆情传播演化模型。通过对传播阈值和平衡点的求解从理论上分析了话题衍生率对传播态势的影响,并通过数值仿真实验分析了影响话题衍生率的社会作用、网民历史记忆等因素对网络舆情传播规律的影响,分析了这些因素对网络舆情衍生效应的促成作用,进而提出相应的对策建议。

Considering the common phenomenon of topic derivation appearing in the public opinion propagation, this paper proposes de-rivative rate and establishes a SEIRS model of the spread of network public opinions. The paper analyzes the impact of derivative effects and the influence of some main influencing factors such as social force and memory of the Internet users and then puts forward some coun-termeasures for the government to guide and control internet public opinions.