政府债务适度规模与增长模式转型

Moderate Government Debt and Growth Mode Transformation

使用21个新兴市场国家与30个发达国家1970-2011年的政府债务数据,实证研究发现政府债务对经济增长的影响具有门槛效应,新兴市场国家的适度政府债务规模比发达国家水平高出约10个百分点。由于政府债务在经济发展中扮演的角色不同,新兴市场国家的政府债务有助于资本形成和全要素生产率改进,发达国家则与此相反。因此,中国应该将政府债务控制在适度水平,保留政府债务一定的投资职能,并且利用政府债务助推增长模式转型。

It is discovered that government debt has some threshold effects on economic growth, through a study of the pan- el data of 21 rising industrial economies and 30 advanced economies. And we also find that the government debt scale of rising industrial economies is 10% higher than that of advanced economies. Government debt has played a role of promoting the the industrial capital formation and the improving total factor productivity in the rising industrial economies, but not in the advanced economies, probably for the different way of using the debt. Therefore, to keep our government debt within a proper scale and investment function of the debt could be reasonable for the transition to a new economic growth mode.