世界石油市场回顾与前瞻

A Review and Outlook of the International Oil Markets

2000年世界石油市场在已经呈现供过于求的情况下,国际石油价格不但没有下降,反而大幅度上升,主要原因可归纳为以下几点:(1)石油供应增长滞后于石油需求的增长;(2)石油工业各个环节的生产能力饱和或接近饱和;(3)石油库存仍处在低水平;(4)成品油价格拉动石油价格上升;(5)市场心理和投机因素的影响。对2001年国际石油市场的基本形势估计如下:石油市场将重新恢复平衡,国际油价将逐步回落到多年来的平均水平;欧佩克政策的侧重点是防止油价暴跌;随着市场供需形势的变化和油价已达到高位,看涨的市场心理开始消散,看跌的市场心理逐步形成;石油期货投机商必然要找到新的炒点,拉抬或打压油价,以从中获利。在需求正常增长,欧佩克采取减产措施的情况下,预计2001年世界石油价格为25.0美元/桶。

Although supply exceeded demand in the international oil markets during 2000, oil prices did not decrease, but increased sharply. The reasons for this situation were as follows: 1) the increase in oil supply laggecl behind the increase in oil demand; 2) the production capacity of certain segments of the oil in-dustry reached or approached their limits; 3) the oil stocks were at low Ievels; 4) oil product prices drove crude oil prices; and 5) market psychology and speculation made a no-table impact on prices. It is estimated that the international oil market in 2001 will now tends to support a downward price trend. Speculators will create volatility, but if demand increases as expected, while OPEC con-tinues to restrain oil production, we expect oil prices to be in the $25/bbl range during 2001.