国外天然气发展的基本特点及其启示

Development in Foreign Countries

世界能源结构的发展趋势是向低碳化演变、最终向无碳化发展。到21世纪40年代,天然气在世界一次能源消费结构中的比例将超过石油,成为第一能源。天然气市场的发展取决于资源保障、运输能力、价格、用户(消费)以及政策法规五大要素。目前世界天然气正处于由区域市场向全球市场过渡的发展阶段。国外天然气有以民用和商用为主以及以发电为主两种基本模式,发电将成为天然气利用的发展趋势。天然气的利用与本地区的经济、技术、居民收入和环保的发展水平密切相关。鉴于天然气有自身固有的特点,发展利用天然气需要从实际出发,不宜简单套用石油的经验。优化城市能源结构,推进城市特别是东部大城市和经济较发达地区的环境保护和经济发展应是我国天然气利用的重要方向。文章还对我国天然气利用的发展战略和措施提出了看法和建议。

The world energy structure is evolving from lower-carbon content to carbon-free. By the 2040s, the share of gas in the world primary energy consumption shall surpass that of oil, and gas shall be the number one energy source. The development of a dynamic gas market depends on five factors: gas resources, transmission capacity, price, con-sumers and policy regulations. Gas is in transition from regional markets to global market. There are two models of gas consumption in foreign countries: one modei is domi-nated by residential and commercial consumption, the other by power generation, which is becoming the major trend in gas consumption. Gas utilization is closely connected regional economic development, technological development, per capita income, and relative con-cern over environmental protection. The development of gas utilization should proceed from local realities rather than a univer-sally applied model derived from the development of oil resources. In the large urban centers along the eastern seaboard in China, these cities must optimize their urban en-ergy structure and promote environment protection. The result of these goals will be increased gas utilization. The article also provides opinions and suggestions on development strategies and corollary measures for gas utilization in China.