基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究

The Coordinated Development of Economy and Environment Based on ARMA Model in Shenyang Economic Zone

选择自回归移动平均模型（ARMA），对沈阳经济区2009~2015 年经济、环境指标进行了短期预测，并选择耦合协调度模型模拟了该区经济与环境协调发展的耦合作用关系。预测结果表明，ARMA模型预测误差相对较小，预测效果良好。沈阳经济区经济类指标总体呈现不断增长的趋势；各环境类指标，原正向指标（指标越大越好）均有不同程度增长，原负向指标（指标越小越好）则有不同程度的下降。但是沈阳经济区的经济与环境耦合度自2010 年开始呈现下降趋势，即仍然存在着经济发展与环境恶化之间的矛盾，说明经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾总是处于由缓和向尖锐的循环发展过程。

The short-term forecasts on economic and environmental indicators of Shenyang Economic Zone in 2009-2015 were made by choosing ARMA model. Then, the coupling relationship between economy and environment was simulated using coupling coordinate model. The ARMA model is one of the most popular time series models currently and requires a large sum of data with a minimum of 50 samples. In accordance with the principles and modeling steps of time series analysis, this article compared the pros and cons among models by model order determination, established the optimal ARMA forecasting model of economic development and environmental transformation respectively. It was found that, the predicted error of ARMA model was smaller and the effect was better. The economic indicators of the study area kept growing. The environmental indicators also gave a good trend with the positive indicators growing and the negative ones decreasing in various degrees. However, the coupling degree between economy and environment represented a declining tendency from 2010 which was mainly owing to the intensified environmental pressure from fast economic growth. The result told that there was still contradiction between economic development and environmental degradation and the contradiction kept circulating from ease to sharp and backward constantly. This research provided practical value for the management and adjustment of the contradiction between economy and environment in Shenyang Economic Zone. The coordinated development degree was directly affected by the scale of economic development and level of environmental construction. Thus, in order to improve the sustainability of economic development in Shenyang Economic Zone in the future, the environmental construction was as crucial as economic development. More projects from economic perspective should be taken as the adjustment of economic structure, reduction of energy consumption and increase of economic revenue. A series of positive measures should also be taken for the improvement of environment, such as improving resources utilization rate, strengthening cleaner production and promoting environment-friendly industry.