我国经济增长与碳排放之间的关系研究

The Research of Relationship between the Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions of Our Country

该文在Copeland和Taylor模型的基础上,建立了碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论模型,根据《中国能源统计年鉴》中各省历年能源消费数据对二氧化碳排放量进行测算,选用2005-2010年的数据通过严格的经济计量方法和统计检验,采用变系数的面板模型来验证人均二氧化碳的库兹涅茨曲线,分析出各省的EKC曲线特征及所处的阶段,之后对各地区的拐点进行预测,从而为我国实现经济与低碳的双赢发展提供政策建议。

This paper established the theoretical model of EKC about carbon emissions on the basis of the model of Copeland and Taylor .Based on the energy consumption data of ＆lt;CHINA ENERGY STATISTICAL YEAR BOOK＆gt;, to measure the carbon dioxide emissions .Choose the data from 2005 to 2010 year, after strict econometric method and statistical test , use variable coefficient panel model to verify the curve of carbon dioxide .Then analyze the EKC characteristics and the stage of each province , and then forecast the regional inflection point , so as to provide policy recommendations for realizing the win-win development of economy and low carbon in China .