基于经验权重方法的舟曲县泥石流易发性评估

Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment of Zhouqu Gansu, China Based on Experience Weight Method

舟曲县泥石流灾害频发,2010年8月发生的特大山洪泥石流,造成大量生命财产损失。文章采用遥感影像结合地面调查获取舟曲县植被覆盖、岩性、构造等信息;基于数字高程模型与水文分析获取水系、沟谷纵比降、沟谷弯曲度、流域、坡度信息;基于国土资源部在全国开展县市灾害调查中提供的泥石流易发性量化经验权重,对全县178条较大沟谷进行泥石流易发性评价。得到的结果与野外考察和前人认识具有较高的一致性。该方法不需要大量的野外工作,具有评估迅速简单的特点,对县级以上区域尺度的泥石流易发性快速评估具有较高推广价值。

Debris flow breaks out in Zhouqu Gansu, China frequently. The night of August 7, 2010 to early morning of August 8, a large debris flow attacked Zhouqu, causing heavy loss of life and property. This paper used remote sensing data and ground survey data to obtain the vegetation cover, lithology, fault information. The author obtained the information about river system, the grade and flexibility of river, watershed, slope, basing on the digital elevation models （DEM） and hydrological analysis. This paper evaluated the susceptibility of debris flow in the 178 large valleys all over Zhouqu with empirical weight method. The assessment results are highly consistent with the field survey and with the past peopleg view. The method is quick and easy, does not need too much field work, and has high application value in regional debris flow assessment.