层次分析法在地质灾害气象预警预报中的应用——广西灵山县为例

Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process to Meteorological Forecasting and Alarming System Against Geological Disasters——Taking Lingshan County of Guangxi as Example

为建立灵山县地质灾害气象预警预报模型,以该县最新的地质灾害调查资料为基础,选取控制和影响地质灾害发生的10项因素为评价指标,采用综合指数法及层次分析法对各因子进行赋值及权重定量化;采用加权方法结合ArcGIS对地质灾害易发程度划分为不易发区、低易发区、中易发区和高易发区;根据当日雨量与地质灾害发生频率之间的相关曲线,确定出地质灾害发生的2个临界当日降雨量为80和140 mm;利用信息量法建立了地质灾害气象预警预报模型,划分出5个预警预报等级。

In order to establish an accurate meteorological forecasting and alarming model against geological dis-asters in Lingshan County, ten factors to control and influence the geological disasters are selected to be the e-valuation indices according to latest survey data in the county .Every factor is evaluated and weighted by com-bined the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） with the weighting method.Prone areas of geological disasters in Lingshan County are divided by ArcGIS and the method of weighting into the following areas： safe area, low risk area, medium risk area and high risk area based on the susceptibility of geological disaster in the county . According to the correlation curve between rainfall intensity on the same day and the frequency of occurrence of geological disasters, two threshold values of rainfall are determined as 80 mm and 140 mm.Information method is used and the meteorological forecasting and alarming model is established for geological disasters .Five grades of meteorological forecasting and alarming are classified .