考虑应急方案实施效果的突发事件应急方案生成方法

Method for generating emergency alternative with considering implementation effects of emergency alternatives

针对缺乏有效应急预案的一类突发事件应急响应问题,沿用基于相似案例分析的决策范式,提出一种考虑应急方案实施效果的突发事件应急方案生成方法.首先,计算目标案例与历史案例间的相似度,进而运用事先设置的相似度阈值筛选并构建有效相似历史案例集;然后,综合评估各有效相似历史案例的应急方案的实施效果,计算综合评价值,并提取综合评价值最大的有效相似历史案例的应急方案,生成目标案例的应急方案;最后,通过一个算例说明了所提出方法的可行性与有效性.

To solve the kind of emergency response problems lacking of emergency plan, a method of generating emergency alternative based on similarity case analysis with considering the implementation effects of emergency alternatives belonging to similar cases is developed. Firstly, the similarities between target case and historical case are calculated. Then, the valid similar case set is built by setting similarity threshold beforehand and case screening. Furthermore, the comprehensive evaluation values of each alternative implementation effect which belongs to valid similar historical case are calculated, respectively. On the basis of the above, the emergency alternative can be generated according to extracting the emergency alternative of valid similar historical case which is corresponding to the maximum comprehensive evaluation value. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.