城市居民最低生活保障阶梯式救助与负所得税机制研究

A Study on the Ladder-type Relief of the Urban Residents' Minimum Living Security and Negative Income Tax Mechanism

文章使用ELES模型，对2003-2011年中国城市低保制度的多层次需求水平进行了理论测算，并据此设计了阶梯式低保救助机制。研究表明，当前的实际低保标准过低，仅占理论测算值的43．7％～56．2％；以恩格尔系数为衡量基准发现，低保理论值比实际值更有利于实现政策目标。在调整机制上，低保线与若干经济变量有比较稳定的关系。从阶梯式低保线占上年人均消费支出比重来判断，食品线约为19％、基本生活线约为29％、持续生活线约为34％、初步发展线约为42％，全面发展线约为55％，这一比例关系有利于便捷地确定当期低保线及其调整幅度。另外，文章以2011年为基准设计了负所得税方案，与补差制相比，负所得税制的就业激励作用明显。负所得税制下的财政负担率表明，在中央财政不进行补助的情况下，多数省份有能力承担增加的财政负担。如果中央财政按2011年的比例继续给予补助，则所有省份都能承担负所得税的资金增量。

The paper calculates the multi-level demand for China's urban residents' minimum living security allowance from2003 to 2010 by using ELES model,based on the calculation designs a five-step ladder-type relief system.The research shows that the current actual level of minimum living standard is too low,which accounts for only 43.7 to 56.2 percent of theoretical calculation value.Compared with the Engel's coefficient,the theoretical value has more advantageous over the actual value in terms of achieving the policy objectives.For the adjustment,minimum living standard has a relatively stable relationship with related economic parameters.From the proportion of consumption expenditure of the previous year,the food line accounts for 19 percent,basic life line for 29 percent,continuing life for 34 percent,the preliminary development line for 42 percent and the comprehensive development line for 55 percent.These relations help to understand current line and its adjustment ranges.In addition,based on 2011 benchmark,the paper designs a negative income tax scheme.The negative income tax system has obvious effect on employment incentives,compared with a make-up fiscal system.Financial dependency ratio under the negative income tax system shows that most provinces are able to bear the increase of the financial burden without the central government fiscal subsidy.If the central government operates its subsidy according to 2011 level,all provincial governments will be able to bear the funds increment of negative income tax.