贸易自由化、行业结构与就业门槛效应

Trade Liberalisation,Industrial Structure and Employment Threshold Effect

文章在Mortensen等人的理论模型基础上，将生产率“饱和点”概念纳入分析框架，以试图解释行业发展质变前后，贸易自由化对就业的阶段性影响特征，提出了贸易自由化对就业影响的生产率及工资的阶段异质性假说，并基于2004-2012年工业33个细分行业样本数据，运用门槛回归技术进行了验证。结果发现，贸易自由化对就业的影响已经趋近于或达到生产率“饱和点”，主要表现在具有比较优势的劳动密集型产业生产率已趋于“饱和”；贸易自由化对就业的影响面临“结构”性矛盾，主要表现在资本、技术密集型行业生产率增长对就业的吸纳作用还有待挖掘，而劳动密集型行业逐渐达到饱和。因此，文章认为，从根本上来讲，在资本或技术密集型行业生产率提升的同时，应促进新兴产业发展，增强行业自身发展对就业的吸纳能力。

Based on a theoretical model by Mortensen,this paper introduces the concept of productivity's 'saturation point' into the theoretical framework in order to explain the impact of trade liberalisation on employment.The paper presents a hypothesis of phases heterogeneity in productivity and wages,which is about the effect of trade liberalisation on employment.Based on 33 industry segments sample data from 2004 to 2012,the paper uses the threshold regression techniques to test the hypothesis.The results show that the impact of trade liberalisation on employment has been close to or have reached 'saturation point',mainly in labour-intensive industries with comparative advantages becoming 'saturated'.The impact of trade liberalisation on employment faces 'structural' contradictions.Therefore,besides promoting the productivity of capital or technology-intensive industries,it is important to promote the development of new industries and enhance the industry's own ability to absorb employment.