农村养老保险综合替代率及其结构分析

The Target Replacement Rate and Structural Analysis of Rural Old-age Insurance System

中国农村养老保险进一步完善的难点之一是确定合理的养老金给付水平.衡量养老金给付水平最核心的指标是养老金替代率.采用“社会平均替代率”概念,提出养老金目标替代率设为农民劳均收入的50％能够实现“保基本”的目标.现行农村社会养老金替代率约为8％,远低于目标替代率水平,农村养老保险体系中的土地保障、子女养老、社会救助发挥了重要作用,农民养老综合替代率达到32％～37％.未来随着社会养老金给付提高,综合替代率将在2030～ 2035年达到目标替代率水平,在2050年达到66％～68％.农村养老保险体系从以家庭养老为主向社会养老为主转变.

One of difficulties of China＇ s rural old - age insurance system is that how to determine a reasonable pension payment level. The pension replacement rate is one of the most core indicators of measuring the pension payment level. In the paper, we adopt the notion of ＂social average replacement rate＂, and put forward the idea that the pension target replacement rate should be set for 50% Of farmers＇ per capital income, which can achieve the target of the ＂meet basic needs＂. The research shows that the current rural pension replacement rate is about 8% ,which is far below the target replacement rate revel. However,the land security, adult chil- dren support for the aged and social assistance play an important role in the rural old -age in- surance system, The rural old - age insurance system total replacement rate achieve the level from 32% to 37%. With the development of the pension payment level, the total replacement rate will reach the target replacement rate between 2030 and 2035 ,and will be 66% -68% in 2050. The transition from family - based support to social - based support will be a trend in the rural old -age insurance system.