基于城市人口变化的住房需求与土地及住宅供给关系研究

Study on the Relationship Among Land Supply, Housing Supply and Housing Demand Based on Urban Population Growth

研究目的:通过测算住房需求、土地供给与住宅供给,研究新增城镇人口的住房消费需求与土地市场和住宅市场的供求关系。研究方法:理论分析法,实证分析法,对比分析法。研究结果:(1)全国层面的土地供给与住宅供给均大于住房消需求,且住宅供给小于同期土地供给;(2)在研究的91个城市当中,只有19个城市的住宅用地存在供不应求,其余城市均为供大于求;(3)从总量上看,即使考虑到2030年时新增城镇人口变化带来的需求变化,土地供应也能够很好的满足住房消费需求。研究结论:(1)地价、房价上涨的原因并非土地供应短缺,住房投资需求旺盛才是高房价、高地价的主要原因;(2)土地闲置和房地产开发企业的土地储备是造已供土地没有及时转化成住宅供应的重要原因;(3)对住房消费需求大于住宅用地供应的城市,应合理引导人口分流,而非一味加大土地供应。

The purpose of this paper is to study the supply-demand relationship of land market and housing market by measuring the housing demand land supply and housing supply. Methods employed include theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and comparative analysis. The results show that 1）the supply of land and housing exceeded the consumption demand for housing at national level and the housing supply was less than the land supply in the same period;2）only 19 cities’residential land were in short supply among the 91cities in study;3）the land supply was sufficient even when considering the urban population growth in 2030. It is concluded that 1） the strong investment demand for housing which was due toliquidity surplus was the main cause of high housing price and high land price rather than the shortage of land supply;2 ）undeveloped land and land reserve by developers had resulted in the failure of converting land supply into housing supply timely;3）the effect way to solve the shortage problem in big cities was to optimizing population distribution rather than increasing land supply blindly.