反倾销与中国的出口损害——基于美国对华贸易反倾销案例数据的研究

Antidumping and China's Export Damage: An Empirical Study based on US-China Antidumping data

本文采用1990～2011年美国对中国反倾销案件涉案产品的HS8位编码数据，研究了美国对中国发起反倾销对中国相关涉案产品对关出口的影响。文章的结果表明：美国对华反倾销影响了中国对美涉案产品的出口，但这种影响只具有短期特征；美国对华反倾销申诉导致了中国涉案产品出口对世界其他国家出口的转移，而且这种转移具有持续性；以反倾销作为贸易平衡手段并不会改变中关贸易的长期失衡，由于美国对华反倾销降低了美国市场在中国出口产品全球市场中的地位，从这种意义上说，美国对华贸易反倾销实际上也损害了美国自身的国家利益。

Based on 1990 ~ 2011 HS8-bit encoded data of U. S. anti-dumping cases,this paper estimates the value of trade damage of China from U. S. anti-dumping investigations. Results show that the U. S. anti-dumping reduced China' s exports significantly,but this effect possess short-term characteristics. The article also showed that the US-China anti-dumping led to China export shift to other countries of the world,and this shift is persistent. This result suggests that the US-China's anti-dumping have reduced U. S. market position in China's global export market,the US-China anti-dumping actually harm the interests of the United States itself. The article results show that it is the urgent problem of the Chinese government to take effective measures to hold back the U. S. anti-dumping and protect national export.