基于VAR模型的中国出口贸易与人力资本关系研究

在开放经济中，出口贸易与人力资本理论上具有交互强化的显著效应，而本文的实证分析也进一步表明：中国经济增长、出口贸易和人力资本之间具有协积关系；人力资本是更多表现为与出口贸易交互作用进而间接地促进经济增长，而出口贸易则通过直接作用影响经济增长；中国经济增长、出口贸易和人力资本所受到的源自彼此间的影响都存在一定的滞后性；就三个变量的长期冲击扰动强度而言，人力资本可以解释54％。63％的波动，经济增长可以解释30％-39％的波动，出口贸易则可以解释3％～7％的波动。

Theoretically, there is an obviously interactive effect between export trade and human capital in an open economy. The evi- dence of this paper shows that, first, there is a cointegration relationship among GDP, export trade and human capital; second, human capital has an indirect effect on economic growth through export trade, while export trade has a direct effect on economic growth; third, the influence caused by each variable usually has a hysteresis effect; fourth, as far as the impact of disturbance intensity is concerned, human capital can explain about 54% -63% fluctuation, economic growth can explain about 30% -39% fluctuation, and export trade can explain about 3% -7% fluctuation.