基于集对分析的海洋综合实力评价研究

Evaluation of Marine Comprehensive Strength Based on Set Pair Analysis

海洋综合实力的提升是海洋强国奋斗目标实现的关键。本文在分析海洋综合实力构成要素的基础上,遵循科学性、层次性、可操作性和目标导向性原则,构建了海洋综合实力的评价指标体系,并将组合赋权法和集对分析法相结合,对2010年沿海11省市区(不包括港澳台)的海洋综合实力进行评价研究。研究结果表明:广东、山东、上海海洋综合实力最强,辽宁、浙江、天津、福建、江苏处于中等水平,河北、海南、广西海洋综合实力较弱;并通过对沿海11省市区的对比分析,得出了沿海各地海洋综合实力发展特征。以上研究结果对于沿海各省市区制定海洋经济发展战略、建设海洋强省,进而实现海洋强国战略目标具有重要的指导意义。

The marine environment has provided a new field for the development of national power and long-term strategic advantage. Marine comprehensive strength plays a pivotal role in the realization of maritime power and measures the development level of the marine career. This paper analyzed marine comprehensive strength, including marine resources, marine economy, international competitive power of marine industries, marine science and technology, and marine infrastructure. We constructed an evaluation index system for marine comprehensive strength in line with the principles of scientificity, hierarchy, maneuverability and goal orientation. A combination weight method was used to obtain each index weight and evaluate marine comprehensive strength by set pair analysis. We found that Guangdong, Shandong and Shanghai belong to the first tier as their marine comprehensive strength is relatively strong; Liaoning, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Fujian, Jiangsu are in the second tier and have medium marine comprehensive strength. Hebei, Hainan and Guangxi belong to the third tier： they are the weakest coastal provinces regarding marine comprehensive strength. The first tier should set up modern marine industry systems and improve the quality of the marine economy. The second tier should build pillar industries and develop marine economy advantages. The third tier should strengthen contact with the land economy to improve the marine economy. The above research result provides a basis and reference for the future marine economic strategy of 11 coastal provinces.