煤炭消费比重、人均实际GDP与碳强度——基于省级面板数据

Coal Consumption Proportion,Real GDP Per Capita and Carbon Intensity: Based on Provincial Panel Data

计算1998—2009年中国30个省、市、自治区的碳强度,通过构建面板数据模型并运用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)回归方法实证分析中国碳强度与煤炭消费比重以及人均实际GDP之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)碳强度与人均实际GDP之间存在着非线性的倒U型关系,即碳强度随着人均实际GDP的提高先上升后下降。(2)煤炭消费比重同碳强度之间存在着显著的正相关关系,并且煤炭消费比重的回归系数比较大,说明煤炭比重对于我国碳强度的影响比较大,通过降低煤炭消费比重有助于降低我国的碳强度。

This paper calculates the carbon intensity of China＇s 30 provinces during 1998 -2009, and uses FGLS estima- tion methods to analyze the relationship between China＇s carbon intensity and coal consumption proportion and real GDP per capita. The results show that （1） there is a inverted U - type relationship between the carbon intensity and the real GDP per capita, i. e. , which means the carbon intensity first rises then decreases with the increase of real GDP per capita; （2） the coal consumption proportion has a significant positive impact on the carbon intensity, and the estimated coefficient of coal consumption proportion is considerably high. This means that coal consumption proportion has an important impact on the carbon intensity and by decreasing the coal consumption proportion will help lower the carbon intensity of our coun- try.