基于agent社会圈子网络的HIV注射吸毒传播仿真分析

Agent-based Simulation of HIV Propagation among Intravenous Drug Users in Social Circles Network

提出了一个基于社会圈子理论的agent吸毒人群网络HIV传播的模型。该模型由具有小社会圈子的一般人群和具有较大社会圈子的关键人物在社会圈子网络中寻找相应的结点相互连接,形成小团体内强连接和小团体之间弱连接的动态吸毒人群社会网络。社会网络中可以同时模拟共用针具吸毒HIV传播、社会影响和个体在团体之间移动的相互影响。仿真实验中通过调整模型参数研究圈子大小,社会影响因子和个体移动概率对HIV传播的影响。实验结果表明,该模型正确地反映了共用针具吸毒人群网络HIV传播的特点。

An agent-based dynamical social circles network simulation model was proposed by studying the dynamic propagation of HIV （Human Immunodeficiency Virus） among intravenous drug users. In this model there are two IDUers＂ type, they are common IDUers whose social reach are shorter and key IDUers whose social reach are larger By moving IDUers to connect their matching partner, a dynamic IDUers network was established, this network was composed of many small groups, agents in the same group were strongly connected while the connections between different groups were weak. This model was used to account for syringes-shared HIV transmission, the social influence and floating population. By adjusting the social reach, social influent factors and floating probability among different groups in simulating experiments, it is found that this model has the same characteristic with HIV diffusion in IDUs networks.