基于海关商品HS四位编码的中国贸易内涵碳计算

Calculation of Chinese Trade-embedded Carbon Emissions Based on HS Four-digit Code of Customs Commodities

文章基于海关商品HS四位编码，构建了详细的进出口商品与投入产出部门的匹配方法．纠正了已有文献基于HS二位编码计算带来的严重的行业出口额和贸易内涵碳误差．实现90％以上的准确率。实证对比发现，基于HS二位编码，煤炭开采和洗选业、通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等部门的贸易额易被误判为0，化学工业等行业的测算存在误差。事实上，2007～2011年，通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业是我国出口规模最大的行业，也是2007年我国对美国出口内涵碳最多的部门。

Based on HS four-digit code, this paper creates a detailed method for matching trade goods and input-output sectors to correct errors in the estimation of sectors＇ exports and carbon emissions embodied in trade based on HS two-digit code in the previous researches, which can achieve the accuracy that exceeds 90%. The comparison analysis results show that by using the previous method for matching, the sectors including coal mining and washing, communication equipment manufacturing, computer and other electronic equipment, etc., are easily miscalculated as zero trade volume, and the sectors such as chemical industries are usually misestimated. In fact, communication equipment manufacturing, computer and other electronic equipment have been the biggest export sector in China between 1997 and 2011 as well as the largest sector of carbon emissions embedded in the export to USA in 2007.