我国货币政策的区域效应——基于面板分位数回归模型分析

An Empirical Analysis on Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China——Based on Quantile Regression in Panel Data Modeling

基于我国28个省份2000-2012年的年度样本数据,运用面板分位数回归模型对我国货币政策在东中西部地区的效应进行检验,分析我国货币政策的即期效应和滞后性对各省经济发展的影响。结果显示:东中西部货币政策的区域效应较为明显。货币政策的即期效应对东部沿海省份冲击较大,对中西部省份冲击不太明显;而其滞后性对中部省份冲击较大,东部次之,西部最弱。建议疏通货币政策传导渠道,完善信贷供给,加快利率市场化等。

By adopting the fixed effects model and quantile regression in panel data modeling and based on the sample data from 2002 to 2012, this article analyze the spot effect and hysteresis effect of monetary policy in China. It indicates that the monetal-y policy in China does have an obvious regional effect. The monetary policy＇ s spot effect in eastern region is more stronger than the other regions, while its hysteresis effect is easy to affect the central region, followed by the eastern region and the western region the least. Therefore, the healthy development of the economy have been left starved for a monetary policy with regional difference moderately, a smooth transmission mechanism of monetray policy and a good finance circumstance.