中国工业结构调整对碳排放的关联效应测算分析

Measurement and Analysis of Carbon Emission Effect Associated with the Adjustment of Industrial Sector Structure in China

结合工业部门的碳排放概况,本文实证测度了中国工业结构调整对碳排放的灰色关联效应,不同于以往的研究,本文对工业结构的划分更为细致,并且采用一种改进的灰色关联度模型。结果表明:中国工业结构调整对碳排放总体存在较强的关联效应,但各行业比重与碳排放的关联程度存在一定的差异,与行业发展历程、行业特性、生产节能技术水平等方面有关;与碳排放的灰色关联度很高的行业应作为结构调整的重点对象,如金属冶炼及压延加工业、采矿业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业和化学工业等的生产规模应被适度缩减,并提升其生产效率与能源利用率;而纺织业、食品制造及烟草加工业等传统轻工业、以及通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业等先进制造业的关联度均不高且相差较小,但也不可一味的任意扩张,应分清调整主次与先后顺序,合理的确定扩张速度与发展模式。

Based on the general situation of carbon emission from the industrial sector , this paper measured the grey correlation be-tween industrial sector structure and carbon emission in China . It is different from the former studies that the industrial sector is subdivided into more industries and a kind of improved grey incidence model is used . The results show that overall there is a strong correlation between industrial structure and carbon emission in China , but how much various industries relate to the emission is different , which has something to do with their varying development histories , industrial features , engineering levels of production and energy conservation and etc .;the industries which are closely related with carbon emission should become the major object of structure adjustment ;for example , the industry of smelting and pressing of metals , the mining industry , the industries of production and supply of electricity , gas and water , the chemi-cal industry and alike really need the appropriate scaling -back of production and the upgrade of the productive efficiency and energy uti-lization rate;there are some traditional light industries such as textile industry and manufacture of foods and some advanced manufacturing industries such as manufacture of communication equipment , computers and other electronic equipment , manufacture of measuring instru-ments and machinery for cultural activity and office work , and the correlation degrees between these industries＆#39;share of output value and carbon emission are not very high but almost the same ;however , they shouldn＆#39;t be expanded without limit , we should draw a clear dis-tinction between the primary and the secondary when the industrial restructuring , and determine the developing pace and mode reasonably .