开放经济下中国工业结构优化与升级及影响因素分析:1985~2010

Analysis on Chinas Industrial Structure Optimization and Upgrading:1985~2010

通过对中国1985～2010年的工业数据分析，发现中国工业结构发生了较大的变化，结构升级效应十分显著；随后在VAR模型的基础上，运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应和方差分解计量方法发现，长期内技术吸收能力、制度变迁和FDI都对工业结构的优化与升级起到促进作用，四者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，且有效的制度变迁是工业结构调整与升级的原因，不仅存在短期水平效应，而且也存在长期增长效应。

By analysis on China’s industry data during 1985 to 2010 , we find the great change has taken place in China＆#39;s industry structure , especially the notable industry upgrading effect of it ;then , by constructing the VAR Model , it applies co -integration analy-sis , vector error correction model , and impulse response function and variance decompositions , and the analysis indicates that there is long-term equilibrium among the four variables , and the authors find that there is a positive effect from technology absorptive capacity , politi-cal changes and FDI to upgrading of industry structure . Our country should adopt or carry out countermeasure for dealing with this situation , to promote technology absorptive capacity , increase foreign direct investment , and to speed up political innovation .