摘要
通过对中国1985~2010年的工业数据分析,发现中国工业结构发生了较大的变化,结构升级效应十分显著;随后在VAR模型的基础上,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应和方差分解计量方法发现,长期内技术吸收能力、制度变迁和FDI都对工业结构的优化与升级起到促进作用,四者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且有效的制度变迁是工业结构调整与升级的原因,不仅存在短期水平效应,而且也存在长期增长效应。
By analysis on China’s industry data during 1985 to 2010 , we find the great change has taken place in China's industry structure , especially the notable industry upgrading effect of it ;then , by constructing the VAR Model , it applies co -integration analy-sis , vector error correction model , and impulse response function and variance decompositions , and the analysis indicates that there is long-term equilibrium among the four variables , and the authors find that there is a positive effect from technology absorptive capacity , politi-cal changes and FDI to upgrading of industry structure . Our country should adopt or carry out countermeasure for dealing with this situation , to promote technology absorptive capacity , increase foreign direct investment , and to speed up political innovation .
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2014年第2期124-131,共8页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(项目编号:11AJL003)
关键词
结构优化
制度创新
经济转型
structure change and industry upgrading
political innovation
economic transition