适度老龄化：应对老龄危机的第一战略

Optimum Aging:aPrior Strategy against Aging Crisis

从少子化和老龄化的关系入笔来讨论中国老龄化面临的挑战以及新的出路,提出中国已经掉进了"少子老龄化陷阱"或者说"超低生育率陷阱"的判断。从长远看,中国人口老龄化挑战的根本是少子化危机。提出的核心观点是,从人口代际关系角度看,"适度老龄化"的含义是老少比和老劳比能够维系代际和谐的理想老龄化状态。实现"适度人口老龄化",必须从人口战略和政策角度出发矫正"人口代际失衡",维护"人口代际均衡"。提出的人口代际和谐均衡主要是指适度的老少人口比、老劳人口比能维系年轻人口的老年支撑力,这是"人口均衡"的重要含义。通过适当鼓励生育和人口迁入补充可以提高老龄化社会的人口支撑力,实现适度老龄化是应对老龄危机的第一战略。

This paper illustrates the challenge and the solution of China aging crisis from the relationship between low fertility and population aging, claiming that China has fallen into “the ：rap of aging with low fertility” or “the trap of lowest-rate fertility”. Judging from the long run, declining birth rate is the source of aging challenging of nowadays China. The author put forward the es- sential point that from the perspective of intergenerational relationship, ＂opti- mum aging＂ refers to the ideal aging situation when intergernerational harmony is maintained by moderate aged-child ratio and aged-labor ratio. In order to a- chieve the state of ＂optimum aging＂. ＂ population intergenerational imbalance＂ must he corrected and ＂ population intergenerational balance＂ should be main- tained. Population mtergenerational hamony refers to the younger population＇s capability of supporting elderly kept by moderate aged-child ratio and aged-labor ratio, which is what ＂population balance＂ highlights. Capability of supporting elderly could be promoted through moderately boothing birthrate and encouraging immigration. Moderate aging is the fisrt step taken to deal with aging crisis.