安徽省淮河流域近56年来气候时空变化的R/S分析

R/S Analysis of Climate Temporal-spatial Change in Recent 56 Years in Huaihe Basin of Anhui Province

基于1955-2011年安徽省淮河流域7个水文站点气候资料，运用R/S分析方法对安徽省淮河流域近56年来的平均气温、降水量等指标的冬季（12月~次年2月）、夏季（7-9月）及年均值进行了计算，分析了该流域段的气候要素空间分布情况。结果表明，平均气温和冬季降水量呈上升趋势、夏季降水量呈微弱上升趋势，年降水量上升趋势不明显；各项指标的H值均大于0.5，说明存在明显的赫斯特现象，反映了该流域近56年来气候变化存在趋势性成分；气候因子的1月、7月、冬季、夏季和年平均H值存在季节性差异，均为夏季大于冬季，说明安徽省淮河流域夏季的气候效应影响高于冬季；气温和降水都存在空间分布差异，整体表现为西南部气温高、降水多，东北部气温低、降水少，中部气温适中、降水少的特点。

Based on climate data of seven hydrologic stations from 1955 to 2011 in Huaihe Basin of Anhui Province, average temperature and precipitation indexes of winter seasons （December, January, February）, summer seasons （July, August, September） and annual average value are studied by using R/S analysis methods. The results show that the average temperature and winter precipitation appear upward trend and summer precipitation appear weak upward trend while the upward trend of annual precipitation is not obvious; all indicators of Hurst index are greater than 0.5, which means that there is an obvious Hurst phenomenon to reflect an existing trend component of climate change in Huaihe Basin of Anhui Province in recent 56 years; however, Hurst index has seasonal difference; it is larger in summer than in winter, that means summer climate effect is higher than winter; temperature and rainfall spatial distributed differently; on the whole, there are high temperatures and more rainfall in southwest, lower temperatures and less rainfall in the northeast and central parts of the characteristics of the moderate temperatures and less rainfall.