多项式分布滞后模型在桥梁挠度预测中的应用

A PDL model used for prediction of bridge deflection

介绍了PDL(多项式分布滞后)模型,并将其应用于某桥梁挠度预测,重点考虑了温度以及车流量对挠度的影响。借助EVIEWS软件对桥梁不同时期的挠度变形值进行预测,并与灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明,PDL模型具有比灰色模型更高的预测精度,其预测结果更为可靠,对类似工程有一定的借鉴作用。

This paper introduces the PDL （Polynomial Distributed Lag） model and its application to the deflection prediction of a bridge, which focus on the effect of temperature and flow of cars. The bridge deflection deformation in different periods are predicted with the help of EVIEWS software and compared with results obtained by grey GM （1, 1） model . The results show that PDL model has higher prediction accuracy than grey GM （1, 1 ） model and the prediction result is more reliable, which is valuable to the similar engineering practice.