人口生产转型、红利结构变迁与现代农业增长——来自21个高水平工业化国家的经验

Transformation of Demographic Production,Change in Structure of Dividend and Growth of Modern Agriculture——Experience from 21 High-level Industrial Countries

人口生产量质转型带来农业增长人口红利结构的变化。人力资本进入农业生产,实现了传统的报酬递减型技术向现代递增型技术的转换,从而使其成为现代农业持续增长的源泉。对21个高水平工业化国家1980—2011年农业增长的相关经验数据分析表明,人力资本超越土地、劳动力、物质资本已成为农业增长的主要动力,农业增长已进入人口质量红利驱动阶段。中国农村人口生产正处在数量偏好向质量偏好的转变期,这预示着中国农业发展新阶段的到来。

The qualitative and quantitative transformation of demographic production promotes change in struc- ture of demographic dividend of agricultural growth. Meanwhile the entrance of human capital into agricultural pro- duction realizes transformation from traditional technology of diminishing return to modern technology of increasing return, making it a source of steady growth of modern agriculture. An analysis of the 1980-2011 data of relevant ex- perience of agricultural growth from 21 high-level industrialized countries shows that human capital much more than capital of land, labour and material has become the leading dynamo to agricultural growth, which has entered in the period of being driven by the dividend of demographic quality. For China, agricultural population is transforming from high quantity to good quality, which indicates the coming of a new period of agricultural growth.