经济-能源-环境动态交互关系的探索性分析

An Exploratory Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Economy,Energy and Environment

要判断经济发展是否是可持续的,就要观察经济增长、能源消耗与环境保护的关系是否是动态协调的。因此就需要搞清楚经济增长、能源消耗与环境污染三者之间的相互关系。本文以经济欠发达的甘肃省为例,首先从协同度的角度研究了1985-2010年间经济-能源-环境三者之间的协调发展关系;然后利用向量自回归(VAR)模型进一步量化了三者之间的动态影响程度;得到了经济欠发达地区经济-能源-环境三者之间总体的协调趋势及三者的相互影响方向。

The dynamic interaction between economic growth,energy consumption and environmental protection is a standard to judge whether economic development is sustainable or not. Therefore,it is necessary to make clear the interaction between economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution. With Gansu, an underde- velopment province as an example, this paper first studies the harmonious development relationship of economy, en- ergy and environment from the angle of cooperation in 1985 - 2010, then further makes a quantification of the dynamic impact of these three factors and finally comes to the general coordinative tendency of economy, energy and environment in underdeveloped areas as well as their mutual interaction direction.