CREAM法在机务维修操作差错概率预测中的应用

Application of CREAM to the Error Probability Prediction of Aircraft Maintenance

航空器维修是航空系统不可或缺的组成要素,维修人为差错会给航空器维修的安全和效益造成不良的影响,因此要将维修差错控制在尽可能低的水平,有必要建立一套可靠的机务维修人为差错概率预测模型。本文将认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM法)引入到机务维修可靠性分析中,首先在CREAM法使用之前对其进行一些补充和修改,然后根据该法的经验得出符合机务维修工作特点的操作差错概率预测公式,最后以某航空器维修部门2011年的维修操作差错数据为例,将该公式预测的机务维修操作差错概率与历史数据进行对比分析,结果验证了该公式有很强的可靠性和使用性。

Aircraft maintenance is the indispensable element of aviation system and maintenance errors will give adverse effects on the safety and effectiveness of aircraft maintenance, so, for the purpose of keeping the maintenance errors to the lowest possible level,it is necessary to establish a reliable prediction model of error probability. This paper applies cognitive reliability and error analysis method（CREAM） to the relia- bility analysis of aircraft maintenance, Firstly, the paper makes some additions and modifications for the method, and then draws the error prediction probability formula which meets the characteristics of mainte- nance work based on the experience of CREAM. Finally, the paper applies the error data of an aircraft ma- intenance department in 2011 to checking the error probability predicted by the formula, and the results prove that the formula has a strong reliability and practicability.