煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的集对分析方法

Risk Evaluation on the Coal and Gas Outburst by Set Pair Analysis Method

针对煤与瓦斯突出机理的复杂性,利用集对原理改进了层次分析法获取指标权重的局限性,建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的集对模型,并提出了相应的判别规则,最后选用瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数、构造复杂度与垂深作为评价指标体系对评价模型进行了验证。研究结果表明,集对分析模型计算简单、结果准确,不仅可以得到具体的评价等级,定量评价矿井煤与瓦斯突出的危险性,而且还可以得到各等级的概率值,是一种有效的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价方法。

In view of tbe complex mechanism of coal and gas outburst, firstly, the limitations of ob- taining the weight of indexes by analytic hierarchy process is improved by adopting the set pair theory. Then, the model of set pair analysis （SPA） about risk evaluation of coal and gas outburst is set up. Final- ly, the evaluation model with set pair is verified by evaluation index system, which contains gas pressure, gas radiation initial velocity, consistence coefficient of coal, structural complexity and vertical depth. The experimental results show that the caculation of the model of SPA is simple and accurate. SPA model, not only can obtain the detailed rank of evaluating system, which measured quantificational risk of coal and gas outburst in mine, but also can get the probability of each grade, so it is a kind of effective method to evaluate the risk of coal and gas outburst.