宣城市2005～2012年梅毒、淋病流行特征与趋势预测

Epidemiological chasacteristics analysis and incidence trends prediction of syphilis and gonorrhea in Xuancheng during 2005 to 2012

目的了解宣城市梅毒和淋病疫情的流行趋势并进行发病趋势预测,为今后性病防治工作提供科学依据。方法基于国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统的宣城市2005~2012年梅毒和淋病疫情数据,分析全市梅毒和淋病疫情流行趋势,建立灰色预测模型对疫情趋势进行预测分析。结果 2005~2012年全市报告淋病和梅毒病例数分别为4 108和6 408例,淋病发病率上升45.78%,梅毒发病率上升327.86%,报告的病例均主要集中于20~49岁年龄组人群（P〈0.001）;淋病报告的病例男女比例为6.83：1（P〈0.001）,梅毒的男女比例为1.06：1（P=0.016）;淋病预测模型为X（k＋1）=207.551735exp（0.073302×k）-193.461735,梅毒预测模型为：X（k＋1）=53.152494exp（0.238679×k）-40.232494,淋病和梅毒的预测分析显示2013年和2014年的发病率仍会有所上升。结论2005~2012年宣城市的梅毒和淋病发病率均呈上升趋势,防治工作的重点仍然在20-49岁年龄组人群,今后的淋病和梅毒发病率仍可能上升。

Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics and predict the incidence trends of syphilis and gonorrhea in Xuancheng so as to provide scientific basis for prevention and control on sexually transmitted disease.Methods The epidemiological data from National Disease Surveillance System in Xuancheng during 2005 to 2012 was analyzed and the grey predict model was established to predict the incidence trends.Results Total of 4108 gonorrhea cases and 6408 syphilis cases were reported from 2005 to 2012.The reported incidence of gonorrhea increased about 45.78%,and syphilis increased about 327.86%.The reported cases were mainly focus on 20 to 49 years old age group（P0.001）.Gender percentage of gonorrhea cases and syphilis cases were 6.83： 1（male： female,P0.001） and 1.06： 1（male： female,P=0.016）,respectively.The model of the syphilis and incidence were X（k＋1）=53.152494exp（（0.238679×k））-40.232494 and X（k＋1）=207.551735exp（（0.073302×k））-193.461735,respectively.The predict analysis showed that the incidence in 2013 and 2014 will continue to rise.Conclusions The gonorrhea and syphilis incidence from 2005 to 2012 in Xuancheng during rising stage and the focal point of prevention and control work was still on the 20 to 49 years old age group population.The future incidence of gonorrhea and syphilis may still falling rise.