入境旅游发展与我国经济增长的关系

The Relationship of Inbound Tourism Developmentand Economic Growth of China

关于入境旅游发展与我国经济增长的关系,国内研究多认为是经济增长推动了入境旅游的发展,类似结论与国外相关研究有较大差异。在时间序列分析框架下,本文通过对比国内外文献探讨了该差异形成的可能原因。实证研究发现,在扩大信息集和样本容量后,基于向量误差修正模型的计总分析及其效应分解分析均表明,国内先前的相关研究结论可能需要商榷。在计总效应分解分析的基础上,本文进一步讨论了我国入境旅游市场选择的优先次序。

Tourism industry is considered as a potential strategic factor for economic growth and balance of the payments in lots countries. Especially, inbound tourism contributes to the. long-term economic growth, promoting capital accumulation, stimulating competition promotion effect, the learning effect of export, knowledge spillover effects and improving the factor productivity all-round. And inbound tourism is indispensable driving force for Chinese economic development form the point of economic growth because tourism trade makes up a sizeable proportion of service trade in China. Meanwhile as the strategic adjusting of Chinese economic growth and tourism development, inbound tourism faces some practical problems. From the macro perspective, there is a slowdown of the inbound tourists growth rate, the slowdown of the share of inbound tourism income in GDP and the share of total exports, and the tourism service trade deficit continue to expand; From the micro perspective, because of the lacking of state support to tourism industry, especially the tourism agencies lack enthusiasm for operating inbound tourism. An important theo- retical problem is that there is a relation dispute between the inbound tourism development and the economic growth. Under the research framework of time series, most literature agrees that economic growth promotes the de- velopment of Chinese inbound tourism, rather than inbound tourism promotes Chinese economic development. But in the time series analysis the applicability of co-integrating and granger causality test is limited by some conditions. So it need further examined that the validity of the existing research results about the relationship between the devel- opment of the inbound tourism and Chinese economic growth. Under the time series analysis research framework and empirical research, after enlarging information set and sample size, aggregated analysis based on VEC Model and disaggregated analysis show inbound tourism is an impor- tant force to promote Chinese economic growth. That shows on two facets. At first, either on inbound tourists＇ varia- bles or on actual inbound tourism income, aggregated analysis shows inbound tourism promotes Chinese long-term economic growth or for short-term inbound tourism and economic growth is reciprocity. Secondly, disaggregated a- nalysis show different inbound tourism segments have different effect for Chinese economic growth. On the whole it is supported the view that inbound tourism promotes Chinese economic growth or the inbound tourism and economic growth reciprocity, while the argument that economic growth promotes the development of inbound tourism, is un- tenable in some markets for short-term. Above all, this paper gives some policy suggestions for Chinese inbound tourism development. These are： re- lated tourism industry policy should lead Chinese inbound tourism development to protect Chinese economic devel- opment power diversity, rather than based on the point of EDGH, hoping to promote the economic development to lead the inbound tourism development. Especially under the background of tourism service trade deficit is enlarging and the tour agencies lack enthusiasm to operating the inbound tourism, tourism industry policy formulating and running departments should focus on tourism market, play a positive role on optimizing the inbound tourism indus- trial structure, devotion of overseas tourism marketing, the creation and protection of worldwide tourism image. At the same time, market selection strategies are further discussed. These are： different inbound tourism markets have different effect for Chinese economic growth, so the tourism market selection should follow the principle of profit maximization form the point of economic growth. In light of this, tourism marketing policies should also focus more on those tourism markets that could significantly stimulate economic growth, and the decision matrix based on the result of co-integrating and granger causality test to different tourism markets can provide lots of useful information. At last, we have to admit that perhaps the approach of co-integration and granger causality is not the best technology to analyze the relationship between tourism and economic growth owing to some potential problems, and need more methodologies to test the relationship.