大城市郊区典型区域农户土地利用行为演变规律研究——基于沈阳市苏家屯区1983-2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

Studying Evolution of Household Land Use Behavior in Typical Regional of Suburbs of Big City: the Empirical Analysis of Time Series Data from 1983 to 2010 in Sujiatun District, Shenyang City

本研究从群体农户角度出发，基于土地经济学、农户行为经济学的相关理论，构建了大城市郊区农户土地利用行为演变规律理论分析框架，并以辽宁省沈阳市苏家屯区1983～2010年间社会经济与农业统计数据为基础，探讨改革开放以来，大城市郊区农户土地利用行为演变规律。研究结果表明：在农户所处的外部社会经济及政策制度环境变迁压力的基础上，大城市郊区农户土地利用行为演变呈现阶段性的变化趋势。其中，在土地利用方式上，集约程度和利润相对较低的粮食作物种植面积在逐渐减少，集约程度和利润相对较高的经济作物种植面积在逐渐增加；在土地利用程度上，复种指数呈现逐渐增长的趋势，从本世纪初开始，复种指数增长幅度明显；在土地投入强度上，随着大城市郊区劳动力机会成本的上升，农户开始选择更多投入化肥、农业机械、农膜和农药替代传统的以农家肥和劳动力投入为主的种植模式，在化肥投入内部结构上，虽然仍以氮肥的投入为主，但是氮肥、磷肥和钾肥的投入比例更趋于合理。

Proceed from the perspective of groups of farmers, based on the theory of land economics and farmer behavioral economics, building the analysis framework of the evolution of big cities household land use behavior in the suburbs of big cities. By the statistical analysis and econometric analysis methods, based on the c statistics from 1983 to 2010 in Sujiatun District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province. The results show that： by the environment of the external socio-economic and policy pressure of the household changes, the evolution of land use behavior is the periodic trends. Among them, in the way of land use, intensive and profits relatively low degree of the crop planting area is gradually reduced, intensive and profits relatively high level of the economic crop acreage increases gradually; in the way of land use degree, the cropping index shows a gradual growth trend, especially, from the beginning of this century, it increases significantly; in the way of the intensity of the land input, with the opportunity cost of labor is rising in the suburbs of big cities, the household has began to choose to invest more in fertilizers, agricultural machinery, plastic sheeting and pesticides in order to replace the traditional cropping patterns by the farmyard manure and labor inputs, in the structure of the fertilizer, although they still mainly input the nitrogen, the proportion of the nitrogen, phosphate and potash tends to be more reasonable.