济南市2009—2012年居民人口及疾病负担分析

Population burden and burden of disease in Ji'nan city,2009-2012

目的了解山东省济南市2009---2012年人口及疾病负担，为制定卫生规划，合理分配卫生资源提供依据。方法采用Excel2003编制简略寿命表及去死因寿命表，使用SPSS13．0和Excel2003对人口学特征、人口负担系数、疾病负担指标进行分析。结果2009--2012年老年人口系数为：男性7．99％-8．19％、女性10．22％～10．29％，少年儿童人口系数为：男童14．02％～16．54％、女童13．24％～15．61％，老少比为：男性49．17％～57．47％、女性65．90％～77．60％；男性总负担系数基本上呈现下降的趋势（32．02％～29．36％），而女性却显示出上升的趋势（24．32％～30．73％）；期望寿命呈现上升趋势，期望寿命延长2．39岁，其中男性延长2．21岁，女性延长2．23岁；对居民工作损失和社会价值影响最大的均为恶性肿瘤，而对居民家庭损失影响最大的为伤害。结论随着居民寿命的增加，老龄化问题日益严重，应将意外死亡和恶性肿瘤作为疾控防治工作的重点。

Objective To explore the population burden and disease burden in Ji＇nan city from 2009 to 2012, and to provide scientific basis for making hygienic plan and health resource development. Methods Abbreviated life table and cause eliminated life table were compiled with Excel 2003. Excel 2003 and SPSS 13.0 were used to analyze demographic characteristics, dependency ratio, and disease burden. Results During the 4 years, the proportion of elderly population was 7.99% - 8. 19% for male and 10. 22% - 10. 29% for female. The youth population burden coefficient for the males was 14. 02% - 16. 54%, and that for the females was 13.24% - 15.61%. The proportion of child population was 49. 17% -57.47% for male and 65.90% -77.60% for female. The gross dependency ratio for male presented a down- draught trend（32. 02% to 29. 36% ） ,but that for female increased（24.32% to 30. 73% ）. Life expectancy showed a ris- ing tendency, with an increased life expectancy of 2. 39 years （2. 21 years in male and 2. 23 years in female）. Malignancy was the leading death cause inducing losses of working force and social value among the residents, and injury was a pri- mary death causing the familial losses. Conclusion With the increase of life expectancy, the aging become a serious problem and accidnetal injury and malignant tumor are major diseases to be controled in Ji＇nan city.