二元经济条件下中国劳动收入占比影响因素研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

On Influencing Factors of Labor Share in China in Dual Economy:Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

文章基于我国二元经济结构的现实,运用"刘易斯—费景汉—拉尼斯"模型,系统分析了农村剩余劳动力转移过程中劳动收入占比的"U形"演变趋势,特别是这一过程中影响劳动收入占比变动的各种因素。文章在此基础上利用1997—2011年的省际面板数据对其进行了实证分析,得出了二元经济结构变动确实对劳动收入占比变动产生显著影响的结论,使其处于"U形"曲线的左边下降段。技术进步、农村剩余劳动力数量、对外贸易以及FDI对劳动收入占比的提高有抑制作用,而劳均资本存量和财政支出则存在显著的正面效应。最后文章提出了具有针对性的政策建议。

Based on the reality of dual economic structure in China,this paper employs Lewis-Fei-Rains model to systematically analyze the U-shape evolution tendency of labor share in the transfer process of rural surplus labor,especially influencing factors of the change in labor share in this process.Then it makes an empirical study by the inter-provincial panel data from 1997to 2011and draws the conclusion that the change in dual economic structure indeed has a significant effect on the change in labor share,making labor share stay the left falling section of U-shape curve.Technical progress,the quantity of rural surplus labor,foreign trade and FDI have negative effects on the increase in labor share,while capital stock per worker and fiscal expenditures have significantly positive effects.Finally,it puts forward some targeted policy suggestions.