跨越“中等收入陷阱”:理论、经验和对策——基于44个国家的跨国实证分析

Striding across the Middle Income Trap:Theory,Experience and Countermeasures——Transnational Empirical Analysis Based on 44 Countries

文章以经典的经济增长理论为理论基础,分别考察了跌入"中等收入陷阱"的典型国家和跨越"中等收入陷阱"的典型国家,采用固定效应、一阶差分GMM和系统GMM计量方法,对影响经济增长的因素做了分析。文章的研究发现,通货膨胀、政府支出和高抚养比对"陷阱"国家的经济增长有明显的负面影响,而技术进步对"陷阱"国家的经济增长缺乏显著性。对跨越"陷阱"国家而言,投资、消费、技术对其经济增长呈现明显的拉动作用。我国人均GDP在进入上中等收入阶段后,在结构变迁过程中要及时转变经济发展方式,通过扩大消费、增加投资、促进技术进步来实现经济的稳定持续增长,同时要通过改革来避免过度城镇化,抑制通货膨胀,为我国经济增长创造一个稳定的外部环境,以使我国顺利跨越"中等收入陷阱"。

Based on classical economic growth theory,this paper investigates typical countries falling into and striding across the middle income trap,and uses econometric methods including fixed effects,FD-GMM and SYS-GMM to study influencing factors of economic growth.It arrives at the conclusion that inflation,government spending and high dependency ratio have significantly negative effects on economic growth in countries falling into the middle income trap,and technical progress has no significant effect on economic growth in countries falling into the middle income trap.As for typical countries striding across the middle income trap,investment,consumption and technology obviously play the role in driving economic growth.After China's per capita GDP enters the upper middle income stage,in order to smoothly stride across the middle income trap,China should timely change economic development mode in the process of structure change,and realize stable and sustainable economic growth by the expansion of consumption,the rise in investment and the promotion of technical progress;at the same time,it should avoid excessive urbanization and inhibit inflation by the reform,thus creating a stable external environment for economic growth in China.