中国失业率水平的适度调控目标区间研究——基于面板门限模型的实证分析

A study on the target range of appropriate regulation on the unemployment level in China——Empirical analysis based on panel threshold model

本文从适度失业的理论分析着手,回顾和论述了适度失业问题研究的重要意义。在此基础上,根据1992—2010年间我国各省、市、自治区的面板数据,在控制了城镇失业率水平和经济增长之间的间接效应的条件下,利用面板门限模型对中国城镇登记失业率最优门限值水平进行估计,得到我国城镇登记失业率的最优调控目标区间为[2%,4.2%]。在城镇登记失业率的最优区间内,失业率的下降对经济产出的拉动效果明显。最后,根据实证分析的结果,提出了一些问题和建议。

Starting from the theoretical analysis on proper unemployment, we review and discuss the importance of the study on proper unemployment. On that basis, we use the panel data from various provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China over the 1992--2010 period, control the condition of the indirect effects between urban unemployment level and economic growth, and adopt panel threshold model to estimate the optimal threshold level of Chinese urban registered unemployment rate to draw the conclusion that the target of optimal regulation ranges over [2%, 4. 2% ]. Over such optimal range of urban registered unem- ployment rate, the decrease in unemployment has obvious stimulating effects on economic output. Finally, we raise some questions and propose some suggestions according to the results of empirical analysis.