全球气候变化的多因素探讨

The Discussion on Multi-Factor Global Climate Changes

该文对传统的观点提出质疑,认为全球气候是由多因素共同决定的。一方面我们通过对距今420000年的气温序列的研究发现地球历史气温具有准周期性。另一方面,对近150年气温序列进行分析并与温室气体、太阳活动的序列进行对比。发现二氧化碳浓度呈严格上升趋势,不具有波动性,因而无法描述气温变化。而太阳活动的11年滑动平均与气温变化较为吻合,且11年符合太阳活动的周期。因而得出结论,太阳活动在气温变化中占据主导地位。最后构建数学模型以对所得结论加以解释。

The article questioned the traditional view on global climate change. We believe that the global climate is determined by a number of factors. We found a quasi-period in Earth＇s temperature history by a temperature sequence of 420,000 annual before present. On the other hand, we analyzed a temperature sequence about 150 annual,and compared it with sequences of green-house gas concentration and total solar irradiance.We found the strictly upward quadric trend in carbon-dioxide＇s concentration（not volatile）, therefore it cannot describe the temperature changes. By the way,the running means on 11 annual solar activity are more consistent with temperature changes, thus we thought that the solar activity decides the temperature change. At the end of this essay, we build a mathematical model to explain the conclusion above and some others.