坝址区渗流场模拟的可靠性分析

Realiable analysis for modeling of groundwater in dam region

本文针对坝址区渗流场模拟结果的可靠性问题 ,简要介绍了渗流随机模拟方法 ,以拉西瓦坝址区为例 ,采用条件模拟的顺序指示模拟方法 ,对岩体渗透系数作了大量模拟 ,建立了描述三维渗流场的数值模拟模型 ,进行了渗流场的 1 0 0次模拟 ,并进一步对渗流模拟的结果作了统计分析 .结果表明 ,渗透系数的条件模拟很好地表征了坝址区岩体渗透性特征 ,渗流随机模拟可定量分析模拟结果的可靠性 ,可为重大工程设计提供切实可行的依据 .

The stochastic simulation is applied to analyze the reliability of numerical simulation of seepage flow field at dam site.The sequence indicator simulation approach is applied to simulate the hydraulic conductivity of the fractured rock and a model for describing the 3\|D seepage flow field is established.One hundred realizations of groundwater table are generated and the groundwater are statistically analyzed.The result shows that the conditional simulation of hydraulic conductivity well expresses the seepage characteristics of the fractured rock in the vicinity of dam site and the stochastic simulation can use to analyze the reliability of the simulation results.