西北内陆干旱区出山口年径流组成统计分析

Statistic Component Analysis for Annual Runoff at Mountain pass Stations in Drought Northwest Regions

采用时间系列的组成项分析法对西北内陆干旱区出山口年径流系列进行了统计分析 ,给出了相应的统计拟合模型 ,并由此进行了两步预报 .结果表明 ,用时间组成项分析法基本上能描述西北干旱区大多数站的统计变化特性 ,预报的结果有一定精度 .拟合的统计模型及所得结论可供参考 .

In this paper, the method of statistical component analysis (SCA) is applied to the analysis of the annual runoff time series of mountain pass stations in drought Northwest regions. Statistical forecasting has been made for each series by the fitted model. The outcomes show that it is suitable in general to adopt SCA to fit annual runoff in the concerned area.