充填管道堵塞风险预测模型

Risk prediction model of filling pipeline blockage

建立充填管道堵塞风险预测模型,运用层次分析法和未确知测度理论的基本原理对管道堵塞风险进行综合评判。在预测过程中,综合考虑影响管道堵塞的动态、静态、定量和非定量指标,如料浆流速与临界流速之比、料浆体积分数、管道粗糙度等。其步骤为:首先,利用实测数据建立单指标未确知测度矩阵;然后,通过层次分析法(AHP)计算各指标因素的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定;最后得到充填管道堵塞风险性预测结果。实例验证结果表明:预测结果与实际结果相符。

The AHP （analytical hierarchy process） and the uncertainty measurement theory were used to make a synthetic assessment about the filling pipeline blockage risk based on risk prediction model of filling pipeline blockage. During this process, lots of dynamic and static, fix and non-fix quantified influence factors working on the filling pipeline blocking were taken into account, such as the ratio of slurry flow rate to critical velocity, the volumetric concentration of filling slurry and the absolute roughness of filling pipeline etc. The procedures were as follows. Firstly, uncertainty measurement function was obtained based on the in-situ data. Then, the weights of the influence factors matrix were calculated according to the AHP method and credible degree recognition criteria were established according to the uncertainty measurement theory. And finally, the results of risk prediction were obtained. The prediction results are consistent with the actual ones.